Overview
With the Democratic ticket’s transition from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump’s return to the campaign trail, both candidates’ respective agendas are starting to take shape, reflecting the priorities that will define the upcoming election. Heading into Labor Day and beyond, both the Republican and Democratic bases are highly enthusiastic, and the race will most likely remain close through Election Day.
Over the past two weeks, Harris's campaign undoubtedly gained momentum with recent battleground state polls showing a shift toward the Democratic ticket. She broadened her appeal to demographic groups that Biden struggled with, including young, non-white and female voters. Harris’s focus on repairing the Democratic coalition and appealing to independents appears to be paying off.
Trump, back on the campaign trail, has ramped up media appearances and launched a week of counterprogramming against the Democratic National Convention (DNC), including his first outdoor rally after the attempted assassination in Pennsylvania last month, an interview with Elon Musk on X and a trip to the southern border. The X interview underscored the rapid changes in the U.S. political landscape since Trump’s previous social media ban and highlights the evolving strategies candidates are using to connect with voters. His visit to the border demonstrates the opportunity the campaign sees in challenging the immigration policy credentials of the Harris-Walz ticket. In response to the challenge of running against Harris over Biden, Trump’s allies have advised him to concentrate on policy rather than personal attacks. In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent announcement to suspend his campaign and back Trump could give Trump a modest boost in the polls.
Campaign Fundamentals
- Polling: Recent national polling averages show Harris two points ahead of Trump – a virtual tie as Democrats wrapped up the DNC last Friday. Polling in the coming week will demonstrate whether Harris generated a convention bounce.
- Battleground States: Battleground states continue to be a priority for both candidates and they show a close race – especially in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – with the needle having moved once Harris became the nominee. As part of the GOP’s counterprogramming against the DNC over the past two weeks, Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, spoke at several events in Pennsylvania, North Carolina (a state that recently became a toss-up), Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin.
- Down-Ballot Races: Despite enthusiasm for the top of the ticket, several Democratic senators in competitive races skipped the DNC in favor of staying home and focusing on a local message with voters. For example, Senators Jon Tester (D-Montana) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) are locked in tight re-election battles and are working to avoid nationalizing their races. Democrats are feeling more confident in swing House districts thanks to Harris’s momentum. For example, Kirsten Engel is trying to flip Arizona’s 6th District and described the recent grassroots enthusiasm as “undeniable.”
- The Issues: Given recent market volatility, economic policy has become a key issue for both the Trump and Harris campaigns. Harris’s agenda emphasizes strategies to reduce the cost of essentials, as part of a broader effort to address economic inequalities and provide relief to middle- and working-class families. However, her proposal to address or potentially ban price gouging has earned criticism from economists, indicating that economics may be potential weak point for Democrats. On the other hand, Trump’s economic policy vision focuses on achieving energy independence and raising import tariffs. Trump’s vision includes significant investments in domestic energy production to bolster the economy and reduce inflation. In terms of other issues, Trump leads Harris on immigration and is closing the gap on crime, while Harris leads on healthcare and protecting democracy.
- Impact of AI: AI’s influence on the election is already a hot topic, with the Trump campaign alleging that Harris is using AI to inflate rally crowd sizes, spreading fake images of “Swifties for Trump.” While these high-profile uses are attracting attention, more subtle, hyperlocal AI-driven campaigns might go unnoticed but will still significantly impact voter perception.
What’s Next
- Campaigns into Labor Day Push: With the conventions wrapped, both the Democratic and Republican campaigns will now shift into full throttle mode. Harris’s campaign announced over 2,800 grassroots-organized events across battleground states and reserved $370 million for advertising in swing-states this fall. Trump’s campaign reportedly said it would put "a whole cadre of people" into the field to counter the DNC, with surrogates including former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo, RNC Chairman Mark Whatley and Vance. The Trump campaign also announced more than 50 events in each of the key battleground states.
- What to watch: Both campaigns will likely shift to their policy platforms in the coming weeks, and we saw a glimpse of this over the past two weeks with a focus on economic policies. While Harris is taking a slight lead in national polls, Trump polls ahead of Harris in voter confidence on the economy and immigration, both topline issues, and key GOP strategists believe he is best served “stay[ing] on message” before September’s debate. As seen from her convention program, Vice President Harris is also attempting to draft a contrast on tone and policy.
- September 10 Presidential Debate: Tensions escalate as Harris and Trump clash over ABC News’ debate rules, which most recently had Trump suggesting that he may back out of the debate entirely. Meanwhile, Harris has already begun debate prep in Washington, and Democrats are hopeful she can better articulate their agenda and counter Trump’s style after President Biden’s poor performance in July. Should Trump agree to participate, the focus will be on Harris’s ability to withstand the unscripted pressure. Her momentum could also be challenged if Trump shifts the debate toward policy rather than personal attacks. Any missteps by Harris or strategic pivots by Trump could alter the current dynamic.
- October 1 VP Debate: Governor Tim Walz and Senator JD Vance have agreed to an October 1 debate hosted by CBS News. This debate will give an indication as to which campaign’s appeal to rural and working-class voters better resonates with key battleground blocs. Walz will likely discuss healthcare costs, reproductive protections and the impact of Democratic domestic investments. Vance will cite inflation, Democrats’ immigration policy and “progressive” social policies Walz enacted as governor. Both candidates were initially met with positive reactions from their party bases and have levied several attacks against each other. Currently, Walz polls more favorably than Vance.
Bottom Line
Harris’s successful campaign launch and convention have changed the Democrats’ trajectory and generated bullish enthusiasm. Her next challenge will be to build on this momentum as she hits the campaign trail and engages in more unscripted moments, including media interviews and the presidential debate. Both campaigns will work to focus voter attention on issues where they are best positioned. In Trump’s case, that will be the economy and immigration and reproductive rights for Harris. The upcoming debates will be crucial, offering both candidates a chance to solidify their positions or shift the narrative.
As both campaigns accelerate toward election day, real-time intelligence will be critical to gaining valuable insights on economic policies, proposed regulations and new initiatives from both candidates that may impact companies’ license to operate, stakeholder engagement strategies and overall bottom-line. Additionally, it will be vital for companies to have a real understanding of how their workforce is viewing the election – thoughtful communication with employees during these emotionally charged weeks will be key to navigating the uncertainties leading up to the election.
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