Overview
Last week’s vice-presidential debate expanded on key election issues but did little to sway undecided voters. With four weeks remaining until Election Day and early voting underway, both campaigns are focusing on energizing their respective bases while addressing vulnerabilities in key areas. Former President Donald Trump intensified his campaign in September, holding 26 events across battleground states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He recently stopped in Wisconsin and Michigan, where the rallies mainly focused on urging citizens in the swing states to vote and his stance on the economy, including a promise to cut taxes and end inflation. Trump also moderated his stance on reproductive rights – an attempt to make up ground with women voters – by distancing himself from a hardline pro-life position and announcing on Truth Social that he would veto a federal ban while stopping short of supporting federal protections.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also been active, campaigning in Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and California to boost support. Harris visited the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27 for the first time as the Democratic presidential nominee, focusing on addressing her perceived weaknesses – particularly on immigration and the economy – while advocating for stricter asylum policies. She also introduced her official economic plan that includes tax credits for small business owners, first-time homebuyers and new parents, while promoting incentives for aerospace and biotech investments.
Campaign Fundamentals
- Polling: National and battleground state polls continue to reflect an extremely tight and stable race, making the outcome virtually impossible to predict. Harris has maintained her lead over Trump in national polls, but neither candidate has been able to secure a significant lead outside of the margin of error in the battleground states that will likely decide the election. Expect to see both campaigns focusing on these states between now and the election.
- Election Rules: Several battleground states recently implemented new election rules that impact how votes are cast and counted, causing confusion among voters and officials and prompting several lawsuits and legal challenges. The new rules include hand ballot counts on Election Day in Georgia and Arizona and updated voter ID laws in both California and North Carolina, while various debates continue around mail-in and early voting in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Proponents of these rules have argued that they provide the necessary transparency to guarantee election results, while opponents have expressed concerns about potential post-election chaos due to delayed results.
- Down-Ballot Races: Both parties have been closely watching scandals unfold in North Carolina and New York for potential ripple effects in the polls.
- After a CNN report upended Republican nominee and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s campaign for Governor of North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Robinson by 54 percent to 38 percent among likely voters. North Carolina emerged as a battleground in this election after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, so a scandal could have the potential to tilt polls up and down the ballot. However, the lack of support for Robinson does not appear to have affected polling for the Presidential race in the state.
- Following his indictment on corruption charges, New York City Mayor Eric Adams suggested that U.S. prosecutors targeted him because he criticized President Biden’s immigration policies, mirroring rhetoric from Trump surrounding his own criminal charges. Some Democrats have expressed concern that this could bring more attention to the topic of immigration, an area where Trump leads Harris in polls.
- Battleground States: Almost every political event in recent weeks has been held in key battleground states; however, polling remains deadlocked across the map. With strong organizing and GOTV infrastructure across these states, the races in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona will be especially tight.
- Democrats: In key battleground states, Harris would benefit if the election results matched current polling. However, with weeks still to go, polling is likely to change, and Harris has had to balance her campaign efforts with her official duties at Vice President amid conflict spreading in the Middle East, the U.S. port worker strike, and the devasting effects of Hurricane Helene across southeastern states. Her campaign plans recently shifted, cutting a trip to Las Vegas short and cancelling plans to campaign with her running mate Tim Walz, in Pennsylvania so she could be briefed in Washington on the storm’s impact and visit damaged areas in Georgia.
- Republicans: Trump could benefit if he gains ground in battleground states or if polling is underestimating his standing, though neither outcomes is guaranteed, as his campaign only ramped up after a slow summer. During recent events in battleground states, however, he continued to launch personal attacks at Harris, including insulting her intelligence during what he called a “dark” speech in Wisconsin and stating at a rally in Pennsylvania that she should be “impeached and prosecuted” in response to her trip the border in Arizona. Trump was also quick to criticize Harris for fundraising in California while Hurricane Helene caused widespread damage in the southeast. He visited Georgia to survey damage days before Harris, criticizing President Biden’s response and launching a GoFundMe campaign to benefit victims of the storm.
- The Economy: Trump continues to lead on the economy, but his advantage on inflation has faded as Harris’s focus on “affordability” gains traction, supported by her 82-page economic policy plan. Voters, now less pessimistic about inflation than earlier this year, seem more receptive to her message.
What’s Next
- Continued Political Violence: After two extremely close scares on the former president’s life, Trump’s campaign has sought to attribute the increased threats of political violence to Democratic rhetoric. Recent polling released by CBS News, however, shows that this messaging has not resonated with the public. The CBS poll found 58% of registered voters say the threat of political violence will be greater under Trump if he is elected, while 21% believe it will decrease. The results highlight the nation’s clear ideological divides: 83% of Harris voters say the threat of political violence will be greater under the former president, while 63% of Trump voters believe it will rise under Harris.
- Middle East Crises: Governor Tim Walz and Senator JD Vance began their vice-presidential debate by addressing the current violence in the Middle East. Israel launched missiles into Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah operations and killing a key militant leader; Iran launched over 200 rockets at Israel in response, pointing to regional escalations at the one-year mark since Hamas’ first attacks. This may prove a weak point for Democrats in the final weeks of this election, as Senator Vance alleged the situation in the Middle East is the result of President Joe Biden and Harris’s failed foreign policy. In response, Walz argued that global instability is not compatible with Trump’s temperament in the White House. Democrats will have to continue to grapple with potential single-issue voters potentially refraining from supporting Harris because of the situation in the Middle East.
- Bracing for Misinformation & Disruption: Publicly posted misinformation remains common across several policy issues. Trump alleged that North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and FEMA are avoiding hurricane relief programs for Republican-leaning areas. He also claimed that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp could not get through to Biden, although Kemp described his call with the President as “helpful.” In the contexts of natural disasters, overseas conflict and attempted political violence, social media posts that spread visceral reactions - whether based in fact or not - will continue to affect Americans’ reactions.
Bottom Line
Both parties’ platforms and leading personas are well established, and the majority of voters’ minds have been made up, arguably for months. This is clearly reflected in deadlocked polls across the country. The remaining subset of truly undecided or low-frequency voters may be swayed by new events that spark political conversations in the final weeks of the race. If economic outlooks and perceived international security appear at risk due to supply chain disruption and conflict in the Middle East, the campaigns will need to adjust their messaging with only weeks to go before Election Day. Business leaders should be advised on the facts and implications of these situations - whether along the East Coast ports or Israeli borders - both in the context of their market and in this razor-thin election.
