November 1, 2024: State of the Race

Overview

In the final week before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are locked in a highly competitive race that has essentially been tied, or led by a razor-thin margin, since the beginning of Harris’s campaign. With only a few days until Election Day, the two candidates have doubled down on their final efforts and closing arguments to appeal to voters.

Earlier this week, the Trump campaign staged one of its final rallies at New York City’s Madison Square Garden, where Trump promoted promises of rapid economic recovery, significant tax cuts, the elimination of wage taxes, stronger crime measures and a “secure border.” Seeking to energize his base and reach infrequent voters, Trump’s recent messaging has been centered around a simple question: Are Americans better off now than they were four years ago? During the evening, Trump reiterated his policy points, emphasizing his goals around fighting crime, eliminating taxes on tipped wages, tax cuts and border security. However, the campaign faced backlash over racially charged comments made during the rally by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.” Trump told ABC News that he did not know of Hinchcliffe and did not hear his remarks, however, he later described the rally as a “love fest” in a press conference from Mar-a-Lago.

On Tuesday, Harris held a rally in Washington, D.C. at the site where Trump addressed his supporters shortly before the January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection. During this speech, Harris urged voters to “turn the page” on the Trump era, and in one of her final efforts to reach low-propensity voters, she reinforced the polices she’d enact if she were to win, including down payment assistance for first-time homeowners, support for the “sandwich generation,” bipartisan border security measures and the restoration of abortion protections. However, Harris found herself on the defensive when a video call from President Joe Biden surfaced where he appeared to label Trump supporters as “garbage.” The Trump campaign swiftly seized on the comment to galvanize supporters, drawing a comparison to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 “basket of deplorables” remark.

Campaign Fundamentals

• Polling: National polling shows a virtual tie, with Trump leading by an extremely small margin (0.5 points) – however, the margin of error across polling will keep the outcome uncertain. At this point in 2020, President Joe Biden had a clear lead in the polls, and while he still won, it was by a much smaller margin than predicted. Alternatively, at this time in 2016, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led in the polls by 3.1 points, yet ultimately failed to secure the win. This year, every vote could be decisive.
• Early Voting: More than 55 million people have already cast their ballot, and early voting shows Republicans are closing the gap usually enjoyed by Democrats as Republican turnout in key swing states is rising, likely fueled by recent encouragement from Trump. It is difficult to draw too many conclusions from early voting in 2024 compared to 2020. In 2020, COVID increased early vote participation, and while Democrats fully embraced it, Trump actively discouraged it. In 2024, both the Trump and Harris campaigns are making a concerted effort to turn their voters out early. While Republicans see their share of early vote as an encouraging sign, it remains to be seen whether early vote participation is cannibalizing the traditional advantage Republicans see among Election Day voters. Much of the early vote on both sides is among high-propensity voters who were likely to vote anyway.
• Down-Ballot Races: Both parties have seen recent positives in down-ballot races. Polls indicate that Pennsylvania and Ohio’s Senate races have tightened, as both Bob Casey (D) and Sherrod Brown (D) seek to retain their seats. Independent candidate Dan Osborn has closed a four-point deficit to be within the margin of error in Nebraska, where he challenges incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R). In a critical race for House control, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski formally endorsed Mary Peltola (D) to retain Alaska’s at-large House seat. Democrats continue to hope their strong Senate candidates, whether in Nevada, Arizona or Pennsylvania, can carry Harris’s vote share past Trump’s.
• The Ballot: Though somewhat undiscussed, millions of U.S. voters will not participate in any reasonably competitive elections. According to Cook Political Report, 365 of the 435 House races are already decided by party affiliation within districts, and only seven states are up for real contest in the presidential race. However, certain states have important referendums on their ballots, including election process reform in Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Oregon, Nevada and Alaska; an independent redistricting vote in Ohio; and 10 states with constitutional abortion amendments for public consideration.
• What to Watch on Election Day: Americans are now focused on two questions: who will win the presidency and when the winner will be known? In 2020, results took days. President Biden was declared the winner on the Saturday after Election Day. This year’s timing depends on state-voting counting processes and margin tightness. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin may complete most counting by Wednesday morning, while Georgia and North Carolina could have results tallied on election night. Arizona and Nevada may take a few days longer given their processes and previous counting history.

Bottom Line

Sharp partisanship, potential for political violence and societal and workplace tensions will undoubtedly rise in the coming days. To navigate the post-election environment as precisely as possible, companies will need to:

• Ensure crisis and risk communications plans and processes are up to date with prepared responses to any election-related issues, supply chain vulnerabilities and stakeholder inquiries.
• Align government and corporate affairs teams for effective engagement with incoming administration appointees and staffers to ensure policy priorities remain top-of-mind for decision makers at both the state and federal levels. Proactive engagement will be critical as we can expect every sector to be on offense with a new administration.
• Prepare and equip senior and middle management employees with updated resources, messages and training to recognize and handle election-related workplace issues. In new research from Burson, only 53% of employees believe their employers are prepared for election-related issues, and just 56% feel confident in their employer’s ability to address political discrimination or harassment related to political beliefs. Additionally, 71% of employees say they want clear guidelines regarding political discourse at work, but only 29% are aware of such policies.
• Adjust editorial calendars and avoid major announcements around election week. Facebook and Google will restrict ads about politics, the election and social issues until November 5.

In today’s landscape, reputation can crumble in a matter of minutes. Leading through this complexity requires absolute precision – precise in your understanding of shifting dynamics and stakeholders, calculated in crafting your strategy and exact in execution.