Post-Election Day Analysis

Trump’s Electoral Victory was Sweeping and Decisive

President-elect Donald Trump secured reelection with at least 277 electoral votes, as NBC News projected this morning. Wins in swing states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina were key, with Trump leading in remaining battleground states that have yet to call their votes, including Michigan and Arizona. Trump will be the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since 2004 and may sweep all battleground states. He will be sworn in at his inauguration on January 20, 2025.

• Spotlight on Pennsylvania: Trump’s win in Pennsylvania proved crucial, flipping this key swing state largely on economic issues. Voter turnout hit record highs in the state, including many first-time voters. Inflation, housing and job security dominated decisions, with most voters reflecting on how their circumstances changed over the past four years. Pennsylvanian women were somewhat split; while many focused on reproductive rights, economic concerns largely drove their votes. Much like Florida in 2000, Pennsylvania was the key state in 2024 – a major win for Trump with far-reaching implications.
• Shifting Demographics: While each candidate relied on votes from key demographics that their parties have traditionally held, exit polls revealed significant shifts and signal new electoral dynamics:
  • The Gender Gap: Harris was the favored candidate among women (53%), but support lagged compared to the Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton campaigns, despite efforts to mobilize women on reproductive rights. Education levels also marked a divide: College-educated women favored Harris, while non-college-educated women voted for Trump. Among men, Trump led with 54% support.
  • The Age Gap: While younger voters shifted slightly toward Trump, Democrats still held a majority, though with less support than in previous elections. Harris made gains among seniors, a group that traditionally leans Republican.
  • Black and Hispanic Voters: Harris retained strong support among Black and Hispanic voters, though Democrats saw a decrease in support from the previous election. Notably, Trump saw a significant increase in support among Hispanic voters (25 percentage points compared with 2020), particularly among Hispanic men with immigration emerging as the second-most critical issue. Hispanic women still leaned toward Harris but by smaller margins.
  • Union Vote: Historically Democratic, union voters were split this year, with Harris holding a slight edge.
• Limitations of Polls: The polls seemingly missed the larger picture, which could indicate their limitations in a polarized electorate and impact the role they play in the future.
  • Pre-Election Day polling showed an extremely tight race from when Harris entered the race – until last week, when Trump emerged with a small lead.
  • While the actual vote results (as of this writing) fall within the margin of error of the poll averages in the key swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, the pre-Election Day polling was not aligned with the outcome, with averages showing Harris leading by a small margin. But the states ultimately flipped to Trump as Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 results among every single demographic except college-educated women.
• Economic Frustrations Drove Decisions at the Polls: While the Harris campaign sought to define its leadership on reproductive rights, the economy emerged as the defining issue for this year’s presidential election. Voter sentiment reflected economic dissatisfaction, with 45% saying there were worse off under the current administration – the highest in presidential exit polls since 2008. Despite Trump’s low favorability, it’s likely that many saw his return as preferable to a continuation of Biden-Harris policies.

Republicans Gain Senate Control while Many House Races Remain Undecided

Republicans gained control of the Senate with 52 seats, claiming retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) open seat and defeating incumbent Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT). Among the races yet to be called, Republican candidates hold slight leads in Pennsylvania and Nevada, potentially expanding the party’s Senate majority as vote counts are finalized.

Control of the House is currently undetermined, and it could take days or even weeks to know final results. Notably, Republicans picked up Representative Elissa Slotkin’s (D-MI) open seat, which she vacated to run for Senate, while they also notched two key wins in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Democrats picked up three seats in New York. Overall, Republicans currently hold a slight lead and could retain control of the House with victories in 16 competitive races, while Democrats need to win 20 or more.

Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress would ease Trump’s path to confirming Cabinet appointees and lay the groundwork for his policy agenda. According to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Republicans have their eyes set on cutting taxes, securing the border and rolling back a swath of federal regulations. While Trump can move forward with imposing sweeping tariffs without congressional approval, any changes to tax policy would be subject to approval by both chambers. On tech policy, some third-party observers expect a Republican-controlled Senate to prioritize deregulation to promote innovation. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is poised to take over as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, and he has opposed efforts to regulate AI or set a federal data privacy standard.

Abortion, Voting Laws and Immigration Lead Key Ballot Measures

Abortion was on the ballot last night in 10 states, including key battleground states Arizona and Nevada. Notably, Missouri, Nebraska and Montana, all historically red states, voted to pass ballot measures and establish the right for abortion, which highlighted the increased likelihood of split-ticket voting when abortion is on the ballot. Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Nevada and New York also voted to pass pro-abortion amendments, while measures in Florida and South Dakota failed.

Voting and election laws were on the ballot across 19 states, including in Wisconsin, Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Carolina, where amendments to establish a citizenship requirement to vote in federal, state and local elections were passed. Ranked-choice voting also appeared on ballots in six states and the District of Columbia, with D.C. having the only amendment that passed.

Immigration was a key initiative in Arizona, where the state overwhelmingly passed a proposition for increased border law enforcement.

Today’s High Stakes Environment Presents Risk, Opportunity for Corporate Leaders

For corporate leaders, the post-election period presents a challenging landscape, especially with the divisive nature of election issues. Companies may be pressured to respond to various stakeholder demands and expectations, raising risks on how and when to engage on sensitive topics, a trend we’ve seen throughout the past several years.

However, this high-stakes environment also offers corporate leaders a chance to take the lead. Precise, values-aligned communication and actions will be key to maintaining reputation and operational stability. Here are a few actions corporate leaders can take to ensure they are prepared to manage what’s to come:

• Become a Resource for Your Employees: Remind employees of your corporate values, vision and North Star, and provide guidelines and resources for political discourse in the workplace. Improving readiness with executive communications and competency among middle managers and front-line, customer-facing employees will help in recognizing and diffusing election-related issues.
• Evaluate Stakeholder Expectations When Considering a Public Statement: When deciding whether to make an internal or external statement, consider your stakeholders' specific expectations and any precedents for commenting on election results.
• Plan for Risk: If you haven’t already, undergo a refreshed risk mapping exercise focused on potential scenarios and outcomes that your company could face from now until inauguration day, and throughout the next year, optimizing rapid response systems.
• Focus on Real-Time Intelligence: Ensure your leaders are equipped with real-time, modern intelligence that tracks sentiment and can map predictive analytics to monitor for key policy and regulatory shifts and external environmental factors that could impact your license to operate.
• Prioritize Message Testing: Now more than ever, stakeholder sentiment varies across issues and how audiences perceive corporations. Ensure your message resonates effectively with key stakeholders by undergoing both qualitative and quantitative message testing with tools such as Burson’s Decipher Index, which uses cognitive AI to evaluate and predict the impact of various themes with broad social, political and organizational implications.
• Fight for a Seat at the Table: Engage your public affairs team to ensure your company has a seat at the legislative table. Begin stakeholder and message mapping to ensure policy priorities are seen and heard with the incoming administration. Corporations have an opportunity to take a lead on key legislative issues that are up for discussion next year – including what the future of healthcare, tech, energy, manufacturing and other sectors look like.