August 14, 2024: State of the Race

Overview

The remarkable events of the past six weeks have recast this election and have reversed, even if temporarily, the fortunes of both major U.S. political parties. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now the official Democratic nominee, has reenergized what had been a deeply demoralized Democratic Party and reinvigorated Democrats’ lagging fundraising operation. With her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris is preparing to use the party’s newfound momentum as a springboard for the final stretch of the campaign.

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign, while still attempting to find its footing following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, continues to maintain a host of positives, including an extremely motivated voter base and the status as the non-incumbent ticket in the race. Trump retains sizable advantages over the Harris campaign in several critical policy areas, including the hot-button topic of immigration. However, Trump has recently made a series of unforced errors, including his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists conference, in which he questioned Harris’s ethnicity, and his ill-fated press conference on August 8.

Campaign Fundamentals

• Polling. Harris has improved her standing against Trump in recent national and battleground state polls. However, these polls were taken at a time of political turmoil and upheaval, which may skew results. We anticipate that the poll results will stabilize around Labor Day, after the traditional convention bumps recede and the campaigns enter the final stretch.
• Battleground States. Last week’s Harris and Walz seven-state campaign focused on states that flipped blue in 2020, as well as contentious states such as Nevada and Michigan. Her campaign sees opportunity in states where Biden appeared to be struggling, indicating it may try to expand the playing field of competitive states. While Trump is leading in several battlegrounds that Biden won in 2020, respected pundits have begun to adjust their forecasts from Lean Republican to Toss Up (see Cook Political Report and UVA Center for Politics).
• Down-Ballot Races. The rapid replacement of Biden with Harris is also reshaping the dynamics for both parties in key congressional contests, forcing Republicans to rethink their strategy of tying Democrats to Biden’s public missteps, while Democratic candidates in battleground states hope to benefit from the enthusiasm generated by Harris’s campaign.
• Democrats. Continuing the momentum will be essential for Harris to maintain enthusiasm and build a lead against Trump. However, Harris has not held a sit-down media interview or appeared in an unscripted speaking opportunity since Biden dropped out of the race, creating pressure for authentic media engagement. Her team hopes the Democratic National Convention (DNC) taking place in Chicago next week will fuel additional momentum for her campaign as Harris and Walz formally accept the nomination.
• Republicans. Trump expanded his lead in the race in the days following the Republican National Convention, however since Harris’s nomination, some of that support has faltered. Moving forward, the Trump campaign needs to craft an impactful message to regain some of the ground they may have lost over the past two weeks. However, given Trump’s recent string of disjointed messages, this seems increasingly unlikely.

What’s Next

• Democratic National Convention. Chicago is set to welcome over 5,000 delegates and 50,000 visitors for this year’s DNC from August 19-22. The event is expected to feature appearances and speeches by Biden, Harris and Walz.
• Campaign Stops. Trump plans to stay off the campaign rally circuit until after the DNC, defying traditional campaign strategies and drawing a sharp contrast to his schedule from August 2016. On the other hand, Harris is expected to continue to push ahead with events and rallies following the DNC.
• Presidential Debate. On September 10, Trump and Harris will participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC. While polls show a tight race between the two, the debate takes on a newfound importance given Harris's lack of engagement with the media, and it will certainly be a test for her to see if she can deliver – unscripted – what her supporters want to hear.
• A Focus on the Issues. With less than 100 days until the election, key issues will become a critical focal point. While the Harris campaign is expected to double down on reproductive rights and public education, the Trump campaign will leverage the Democratic party’s past economic performance and tout its “America’s first” economic policy, which promotes U.S. manufacturing and protects U.S. jobs. It will also reinforce its stance on immigration and crime, referring to the crisis at the southern border, to fuel supporter momentum.
• Economic Considerations. The future of both the Harris and Trump campaigns will hinge on economic stability, especially following last week’s extreme market volatility triggered by a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report. This week, attention will turn to the Federal Reserve as upcoming monthly inflation reports and Wednesday’s consumer price index are expected to provide insight into its course of action around rate cuts. The Trump campaign is likely to capitalize on the market uncertainty, using it to reinforce messaging on its economic policies ahead of November.

Bottom Line

The presidential election has shifted dramatically in the last several weeks and is challenging all traditional expectations of a “normal” election cycle.

With the Democratic nomination secured, the Harris campaign is looking to execute a strong convention that builds on the momentum and enthusiasm and ultimately win votes in critical battleground states in November. The Trump campaign will be aiming to refine its strategy and messaging to knock the Harris campaign off its stride and regain the upper hand.

Post Labor Day, and with the first debate in sight, there will likely be a shift to more policy-oriented campaign efforts, although the personalities and backgrounds of the candidates will remain a key part of the conversation. With the race tightening and high enthusiasm from both parties, we can expect emotions to run high in key campaign moments, with the potential for that to spill over with employees in the workplace. Corporate leaders should be mindful of this potential impact and take actions now to ensure they are maintaining a respectful and productive work atmosphere.