September 24, 2024: State of the Race

Overview

With fewer than 50 days until the election, the political climate remains tense. On Sunday, September 15, there was an attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump at his golf course in Florida – marking the second attempt on the former president’s life in the past three months. Although the suspect was arrested and Trump was unharmed, the attempt heightened existing concerns about the Secret Service’s ability to protect presidential candidates alongside rising political violence in the U.S.

Despite the attempted assassination, both Trump and Harris have continued campaigning following what is likely to be the first and only presidential debate between the two candidates. Harris campaigned in traditionally red areas in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, where she discussed reproductive rights and abortion. In an effort to appeal to union voters, Harris met with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters – a union that is deeply connected to 1.3 million working class voters in the Midwest and battleground states. In a historic move, the union declined to endorse either Harris or Trump for president, citing “neither major candidate was able to make serious commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are always put before Big Business.” This decision is indicative of the extremely close race between Harris and Trump and the strong loyalties of both candidates’ supporters, even in areas where one party has historically had a stronghold. Meanwhile, Trump campaigned in Pennsylvania and New York, a traditionally blue state, aiming to weaken Democratic party enthusiasm and boost competitiveness in down-ballot races. Trump also announced his new cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial, sparking concerns that his business plans could benefit from favorable regulations if he wins. With the economy continuing to be a top issue for voters and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut last week, both campaigns will be under scrutiny to expand on their proposed economic policies.

What’s Next

• Increasing Concerns over Violence: The escalating violence surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential race has had a profound impact on the political landscape and indicates a shift in U.S. politics, as threats and violence are becoming increasingly common, and could continue in future elections. As both sides accuse the other of posing a threat to democracy and public safety, the race is now as much about security and fear as it is about policy and governance.
• Avoiding a Government Shut Down: A government shutdown, stemming from opposition to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) plan to pass a short-term funding bill tied to the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizen to vote, looms on October 1. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) warned that it could hurt Republicans in the upcoming elections. Congress is expected to pass this week a short-term funding patch that will continue government funding through mid-December.
• Early Voting: Early in-person voting began last week in Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia, with absentee ballots now available in Alabama, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, Republican-backed lawsuits and proposed rule changes to election ballot collection are forcing some states to scramble to change their procedures, potentially impacting the actual counting of ballots and potentially delaying results. In Georgia, a state familiar with election interference issues and a key battleground state, the State Election Board proposed election changes that may lead to hand-counting ballots the night of the election or starting the day after, risking errors and delays that could compound election night issues.
• VP Debate: The vice-presidential debate between Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) is set for October 1 in New York City and will be hosted by CBS News. The two candidates represent stark contrasts: Vance, a relative newcomer to politics, is known for his sharp rhetoric and polarizing attacks, while Walz, with five years of executive experience as governor, offers a steadier, more composed demeanor. This debate will be a pivotal moment for both campaigns as they seek to energize their respective voter bases.
• Political Advertising: Meta will block new political ads during the final week of the U.S. election campaign, only allowing ads that have already run prior to the restriction. This policy, introduced in 2020, is designed to prevent last-minute claims from going unchecked. The restriction will be lifted the day after the election.

Bottom Line

With the election just weeks away, both the political landscape and business environment are becoming more complex. Rising political violence, tight down-ballot races and increased scrutiny over campaign strategies and policies are shaping this pivotal moment. With early voting underway, both sides are pushing hard to lock in votes before election day. The upcoming debate between Walz and Vance could also affect voter perceptions and campaign strategies, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape.

For companies, it is important to navigate these dynamics carefully. Meta’s ad restrictions during the final week of the election, paired with controversies over government influence in content moderation, highlight the need for businesses to remain compliant with advertising rules and mindful of political sensitivities. However, this is a time to pinpoint strategies and scenario plans for engaging with the winning candidate’s transition team across government agencies, offices and departments. Companies must work to understand what shifts in leadership could occur and how that could impact corporate policy priorities. Firms should also prepare for potential disruptions, such as heightened political tensions or a government shutdown, which could impact markets, supply chains and customer behavior.